Most travel woes well north and west of city

Winter Weather Advisory in effect through 9 a.m. tomorrow N&W of D.C. (includes Montgomery, Loudoun, Howard counties and points N&W; advisory discontinued for Fairfax and Prince William County)

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Wintry mix and/or rain. 31-35. | Tonight: Mix to rain. 31-35. | Tomorrow: Morning Rain. 41-45. | A Look Ahead

FORECAST IN DETAIL

A classic clash of air masses is creating a complicated weather picture for the D.C. area today. Cold air that filtered southward overnight will interact with warmer air and precipitation from our south today. North and west of town, occasional sleet and freezing rain will develop and gradually increase in intensity as the day wears on. Inside the Beltway and to the south and east, sleet will probably turn to plain rain, but temperatures will be close enough to freezing that some icing cannot be entirely ruled out.

Today (Tuesday): In the normally colder north and west suburbs, morning sleet will probably change to freezing rain by midday. Temperatures should generally hover near freezing. There may be some lulls in the precipitation and it is forecast to be heaviest in the late afternoon toward evening. Although the ground is not very cold, watch out for slick spots especially late in the afternoon with the loss of daylight. As usual, bridges, ramps, overpasses, and untreated sidewalks will be the main trouble spots.

Inside the Beltway and points south and east, it should be at or just above freezing through the day, reducing the threat of iciness and resulting in mainly a cold rain. However, some sleet may mix in with the rain during the first half of the day and temperatures will be close enough to freezing for the evening rush hour that the situation will bear watching. Confidence: Low-Medium

Tonight: Precipitation continues overnight. Areas well north and west of the city may remain at or just below freezing so significant accumulations of ice are possible (stay tuned for updates through the day today) especially towards Frederick and Loudoun counties. In the immediate suburbs, city, and south and east mostly rain should fall, but temperatures will remain perilously close to freezing. Confidence: Low-Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend.

Winter Weather Advisory in effect 6 a.m. Tues through 9 a.m. Wed. N&W of D.C. (includes Fairfax, Montgomery and Howard counties and points N&W; excludes Arlington County, Falls Church and Alexandria)

* Wintry Mix Targets Area Tuesday: Full Forecast Through Weekend *

Tomorrow's winter weather event is a marginal one -- in that a couple degrees will make the difference between an icy mess and mainly cold rain. As usual, the further north and west you go, the better chance of the former. I don't think conditions will be bad enough for delays or closings in the immediate metro area in the morning.

In the outlying north and west counties (Loudoun and Frederick), there's a slight chance precipitation could start early enough (and that it will be cold enough) that school is delayed or even called off. More likely, these counties will see early dismissals, which could even extend into Fairfax and Montgomery Counties depending on temperatures midday tomorrow and how scared decision makers are. The prospect of ice does tend to strike fear in the hearts of school administrators...

SchoolCast:

For Loudoun and Frederick Counties and north and west:

Fairfax and Montgomery Counties:

Everywhere else:

Greatest ice threat is N&W of D.C. late in the day

Winter Weather Advisory in effect 6 a.m. Tues. through 9 a.m. Wed. N&W of D.C. (includes Fairfax, Montgomery and Howard counties and points N&W; excludes Arlington County, Falls Church and Alexandria)

* Inauguration Wx: The Case of Kennedy | InaugurationCast *

Following a brief period of morning sprinkles and light showers (mainly D.C. and east), today was mostly cloudy and quiet on the weather front. Highs that touched 50 in many spots will drop back through the 40s this evening as a wind from the north funnels colder air into the area.

Tonight: After a few evening breaks, clouds will increase again. A light wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, or just plain rain could be approaching western portions of the area after midnight, leading to a slight chance of precipitation before sunrise. Morning lows should be in the low-to-mid 30s.

Tomorrow Morning: Expect the chances of sleet, freezing rain and rain to increase through the day and last into the night. But precipitation may be too light and intermittent, and temperatures not quite cold enough, to cause many problems for the morning through midday period.

Tomorrow Afternoon and Night: With enough precipitation, roads could become significantly slick north and west of D.C. in the afternoon and into the night, when readings there could sink to just below freezing. In D.C. and to the south and east, roads should fare much better with temperatures likely to be at or just above freezing through the day and into the night.

Overnight and toward morning, temperatures should warm, allowing for frozen precipitation to change to plain rain from southeast to northwest.

See Jason Samenow's forecast through the weekend.

A soldier from U.S. Army Corps of Engineer's Inaugural Snow Removal Force prepares to move a car abandoned from the snowstorm on the eve of John F. Kennedy's inauguration in 1961. Image courtesy U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Inauguration Links

 

• Inauguration Central
• Weather Features
• Forecast Archive

 

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Today's InaugurationCast

Inauguration planners should pray there's no repeat of what transpired January 19, 1961 -- the eve of John F. Kennedy's inauguration. An unanticipated dumping of snow resulted in chaos in the metro area. As the National Weather Service describes:

8 inches of snow fell and caused the most crippling traffic jam (for its time). Hundreds of cars were marooned and thousands of cars were abandoned. The president-elect had to cancel dinner plans and, in a struggle to keep other commitments, is reported to have had only 4 hours of sleep. Former President Herbert Hoover was unable to fly into Washington National Airport due to the weather and he had to miss the swearing-in ceremony.

How did forecasters err? How did the storm develop? How effective was the response effort? Keep reading...

Seasonably cold conditions most of the week

Winter Storm Watch in effect Tues. afternoon through Wed. morning N&W of D.C. (includes Fairfax, Montgomery and Howard counties and points N&W; excludes Arlington County, Falls Church and Alexandria)

* InaugurationCast | Kennedy Inauguration Forecast Bust *

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Variably cloudy. 45-50. | Tonight: Increasing clouds. 28-32. | Tomorrow: Wintry mix. 31-35. | A Look Ahead

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Winter will try to assert itself this week, but not in a snow-lover friendly way. A significant storm will bring an unwelcome mix of ice and rain to the region tomorrow into Wednesday. Maybe the precipitation starts as a little snow. After the storm passes, cold air gradually re-establishes itself over the area but without a lot of precipitation.

Today (Monday): A cold front pushing through the region could (20% chance) generate a shower or two -- mainly in the morning. For the afternoon, expect variably cloudy skies. Temperatures will be pretty typical for the season, with highs in the mid- to upper 40s. Winds will blow from the northwest at 10-15 mph and may be gusty at times. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: As high pressure moves offshore, clouds move in with a 30% chance of sleet or light snow late at night. Little or no accumulation is expected and the precipitation may begin as rain. Lows will range from the upper 20s in the north and west suburbs to near freezing downtown. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the detailed forecast through the week.

Testing the limits of long-range predictions

Inauguration Links

 

• Inauguration Central
• Weather Features
• Forecast Archive

 

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Today's Local Forecast

Through January 13, CWG's chief and lead meteorologists -- Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman, respectively -- will provide dueling forecasts for Jan. 20, Inauguration Day. We'll also feature reader predictions. Starting Jan. 14, we'll shift to a single CWG team forecast, in hopes of more confidently honing in on the forecast details.

For three days running, Dan and I have stuck with our initial inauguration weather predictions. We've seen nothing to change our thinking about how weather patterns will evolve over the next couple of weeks. For those of you who have already read our predictions, we've added to our predictions a discussion about what we agree with and disagree with about each others' forecast.

So keep reading for these discussions and predictions, two new reader predictions (blasmaic and jtae55) and some inauguration weather history. And don't forget to comment with your own inauguration weather predictions.

Inauguration Links

 

• Inauguration Central
• Weather Features
• Forecast Archive

 

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Today's Local Forecast

Through January 13, CWG's chief and lead meteorologists -- Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman, respectively -- will provide dueling forecasts for Jan. 20, Inauguration Day. We'll also feature a reader prediction. Starting Jan. 14, we'll shift to a single CWG team forecast, in hopes of more confidently honing in on the forecast details.

For another day, Dan and I are standing firm with our initial inauguration weather predictions. Neither of us expect anything too extreme (on the hot or cold side), but both of us believe there's at least a slight chance of some precipitation. On the other hand, long-time Capital Weather Gang reader/commenter El Bombo (Bombo47jea) of DanceCast fame believes the region will get socked by a major storm. After a several month hiatus, he resumed posting on the blog yesterday.

Keep reading for Jason and Dan's initial predictions not to mention El Bombo's, and some inauguration weather history. And don't forget to comment with your own inauguration weather predictions.

Some iciness may develop late Tuesday

* Top Five Local Weather Events: 2008 | Weather Ins and Outs for 2009 *

Forecast edited at 11:50 a.m.

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. 41-44. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy. 36-39. | Tomorrow: Chance of a.m. rain, then slow clearing. 47-50. | A Look Ahead

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Quite unruly weather will be the norm for the next several days as your exact location could have a large impact on what weather you see. The chance for precipitation begins today and will remain with us through mid-week albeit with some breaks (e.g. today and tomorrow afternoon). Temperatures won't be too much out of the norm although some cooling Tuesday may give us a chance for some frozen precipitation.

Today (Sunday): Today will be a typical drab winter day. It won't be warm at all, but it won't be cold enough for snow. It won't be dry, but it won't rain heavily. There will be fleeting peeks of the sun, but mostly overcast. In summation, blech. A passing upper disturbance may bring just enough energy to generate some patchy light rain, but don't expect any downpours out of it. In fact, some of you may not see any rain at all (sort of a meteorological catch-22). Cloudy skies will hold temperatures in the low to mid- 40s for the majority of the day and the wind will be blowing in from the south at 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Any rain will come to an end from west to east during the evening probably by the time most of us hit the sack. A widely scattered shower or two may linger into the early morning is possible under mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s downtown to the lower 30s north and west. Winds will be shifting to out of the west at 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through your mid-week...

Inauguration Links

 

• Inauguration Central
• Weather Features
• Forecast Archive

 

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Today's Local Forecast

What's better than one Inauguration forecast? How 'bout two? Through January 13, CWG's chief and lead meteorologists -- Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman, respectively -- will provide dueling forecasts for Jan. 20, Inauguration Day. Starting Jan. 14, we'll shift to a single CWG team forecast, in hopes of more confidently honing in on the forecast details. Check back daily for our latest thinking, a look at past inaugural weather, and a sampling of what you, our readers, are predicting.

Keep reading for Jason and Dan's initial predictions, a reader prediction, and some inauguration weather history...

* Top Five Local Weather Events: 2008 | Weather Ins and Outs for 2009 *

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly sunny and seasonable. 44-48 | Tonight: Increasing clouds. Low 30-34. | Tomorrow: Chance of light rain. 41-45 | A Look Ahead

FORECAST IN DETAIL

The weekend begins with quite a nice early January day...with sunshine and moderate temperatures. Sunday won't be as pleasant with overcast skies and some patchy light rain. Waiting for more winter-like weather? We may get a quick taste of it Tuesday, but as with most storms this season, sufficiently cold air doesn't appear like it will stick around long enough for accumulating snow.

Today (Saturday): High pressure cruises through the region today giving us sunshine and temperatures right around average. Most locations should max out in the mid- 40s, but don't be surprised if a few spots make a run towards 50, especially in the southern suburbs. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Clouds increase as the next weather system approaches from the west. There's a 30% chance of rain towards dawn. A few spots well north and west of town (northern Montgomery and western Loudoun counties and to the north and west) could see a brief period of ice (20% chance). Lows will range from the upper 20s in those outlying areas to 32 to 35 (close-in suburbs to city). Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast into early next week.